Monday Night Football
NFLPS: Friday NFL Exhibition Action
2010-08-12
The first week of exhibition football continues on Friday with three more games, all accompanied by pointspreads, totals, and other exciting wagering options. Let’s take a look at the three contests, Jacksonville at Philadelphia, Buffalo at Washington, and Kansas City at Atlanta, all from a betting perspective, with lines & totals courtesy of Sportsbook.com.
Jacksonville (0-0) at Philadelphia (0-0), Friday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Line: Philadelphia -3 Total: 33.5
The Eagles prepare for the first season of the post-Donovan McNabb era and will be putting their trust in the arm of Kevin Kolb, who filled in admirably for the injured McNabb last year. Kolb inherits an array of young targets in wide receivers Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson and tight end Brent Celek. Maclin (knee) and Jackson (back) have both missed practice time this preseason.
The Jaguars may have finished in last place in the highly competitive AFC South last season, but at 7-9 they were not far from making the playoffs. The Jags will have to improve upon a defense that ranked near the bottom in defending the pass. Offensively, David Garrard will try to build on the connection he established with wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker a year ago, while still relying heavily on the powerful legs of running back Maurice Jones-Drew.
The Jaguars have been successful on natural surfaces away from home. Consider this trend from StatFox: JACKSONVILLE is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games in games played on a
grass field since 1993. The average score was JACKSONVILLE 21.6, OPPONENT
18.1 - (Rating = 1*).
Also Eagles coach Andy Reid has been known to not take the early part of the preseason all that seriously: PHILADELPHIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in the first two weeks of the pre-season since 1993. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 15.5, OPPONENT 20.5.
Buffalo (0-0) at Washington (0-0), Friday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Line: Washington -3 Total: 32.5
The Redskins camp, their first under two-time Super Bowl winning coach Mike Shanahan, has been one of the more intriguing ones so far. The saga of Albert Haynesworth, who finally passed his conditioning test, and the addition of Donovan McNabb to replace Jason Campbell, who is now in Oakland, has been fun to watch.
New Buffalo coach Chan Gailey is looking to Trent Edwards to lead his offense this season. Edwards will face competition from both Brian Brohm and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Whoever ends up as quarterback will be happy that the Bills finally came to terms with first round draft pick C.J. Spiller out of Clemson. The all-purpose back could have an immediate impact on the Bills, who have a long way to go to catch up to their division rivals in New England, New York and Miami. On the defensive side, it remains unclear whether the Bills will have the services of Aaron Schobel, who can’t seem to make up his mind about whether and where he wants to play.
The depth of competition at quarterback for Buffalo could result in some inspired offensive play throughout the game, keeping things close. BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread at WASHINGTON since 1993.
Kansas City (0-0) at Atlanta (0-0), Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Line: Atlanta -3 Total: 34.5
The Chiefs have gone to the Patriot well once again, adding coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel, who were instrumental in bringing three Lombardi trophies to New England under Bill Belichick. Weis will be designing plays for Matt Cassel, whose numbers dipped last season, his first with the Chiefs, after enjoying remarkable success in 2008 filling in for the injured Tom Brady.
The Falcons missed the playoffs a year ago, but did post a respectable 9-7 record with second-year starter Matt Ryan under center. Atlanta’s porous pass defense will have to improve in order for them to compete for the division title with the defending Super Bowl champion Saints.
Ryan and the Falcons are out to prove that they are more like the team that made the playoffs two seasons ago than the one that played inconsistently in 2009, and that winning attitude could very well show itself in the preseason.
The following StatFox Power Trend illustrates the road struggles of the Chiefs: KANSAS CITY is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1993. The average score was KANSAS CITY 13.6, OPPONENT 21.8 - (Rating = 1*).
NFL: SAN DIEGO at TENNESSEE (8:20 PM ET, NFLN)
2009-12-28
The Chargers and Titans bring in some holiday cheer with a Christmas Night game on NFL Network. The Chargers have wrapped up a first round playoff bye thanks to their win over Cincinnati and will play as the AFC’s #2 seed when the postseason kicks off in two weeks. Tennessee is still hoping to be part of that party and at 7-7, still has a chance in the crowded wildcard chase. The Titans have to win here though, and as a 3-point favorite, only a small group of bettors (11%) at Sportsbook.com like the chances of that happening.
The Titans will wrap up a 3-game homestand in this contest before heading to Seattle for the season finale. They are 5-2 SU & 4-2-1 ATS at home in ’09, and 10-2-1 ATS in L13 as hosts overall. The Chargers are 12-0 SU & 10-3 ATS in December under Norv Turner, and have won the L5 games between these teams, both SU & ATS. San Diego is also on a nice run of 13-3 ATS vs. AFC South foes.
Philip Rivers fits into the same category of quarterback as Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb, not in terms of Super Bowl titles or Most Valuable Player awards but shouldering nearly all of the offensive load.
San Diego’s running game has been almost non-existent, save for the goal line, averaging just 86.2 yards per game. It’s better than only Indianapolis and Chicago, while Rivers is on pace to set a career-high in attempts. He completed 24 of 38 throws in last week’s 27-24 win over Cincinnati, San Diego’s ninth consecutive victory, and is only 34 attempts shy of his personal high in the category with two games to play.
On the surface, Tennessee would appear to have a ball-control offense, but the big-play ability of Chris Johnson, the NFL’s rushing leader, gives the Titans the same type of score-from-anywhere element that the Chargers have with Rivers. His 20 runs of more than 40 yards are nearly double that of the next best back, Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson, and he also has three 40-plus-yard receptions under his belt. Teams have had success pounding their way into the San Diego defense, averaging a healthy 116.9 yards per game, but few have found excessive free space. The Chargers have allowed just seven runs of more than 20 yards.
Tennessee cornerback Cortland Finnegan missed all three October games, and his absence certainly showed. After losing three September games by a combined 13 points, the Titans lost their next three, sans Finnegan, by a combined 101. He returned to the lineup in November, has picked off three passes since and the defense has allowed more than 17 points in just three of the last eight games.
Vince Young showed some flashes of his running ability in the Week 14 victory over St. Louis, but left after the 44-yard run because of a hamstring injury. He returned for last Sunday’s 27-24 overtime victory against Miami and played a more conventional game, rushing just twice for 24 yards.
The Chargers have won five straight in the series and own a 22-13-1 edge overall. The last time they met, in the first round of the 2007 playoffs, Rivers bested Young, 17-6, and threw for 292 yards.
PREDICTION: Last quarterback with the ball wins. Rivers has an ever-growing list of fourth-quarter comebacks to his name, while Young may have turned in one of the more probable game-winning drives in recent history (99-yarder against Arizona). Tennessee’s defined the term “playing for pride” and knocking off the red-hot Chargers would be another feather in its cap. TENNESSEE 36, SAN DIEGO 35
NFL: Sunday Late Afternoon NFL Kickoffs (4:15 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2009-09-21
There are five late afternoon games in the NFL, on Sunday, and three of them offer very intriguing matchups. Here is a look at each of those key games plus a Best Bet pick from the Platinum Sheet on one of the other less than stellar affairs. Be sure to read these key tidbits before hitting the confirm button on your wagers at Sportsbook.com.
(223) SEATTLE at (224) SAN FRANCISCO (-1.5)
Seattle and San Francisco were the big winners in last week’s NFC West duals, each winning on the road. Now, with the early lead in the standings at stake, the teams will go head-to-head on Sunday. The 49ers are a slight favorite after being outgained by Arizona on Sunday 299-203. Meanwhile, the Seahawks dominated St. Louis, winning on the scoreboard 28-0, and on the yardage total, 446-247. Seattle has been the better of these two teams in h2h meetings, going 5-2 SU & ATS in its L7 trips to San Fran, and 8-3 SU & 7-4 ATS in the L11 games overall. HC Jim Mora’s team also boasts a 9-4 ATS record in its L13 divisional games. However, they are just 1-9 ATS in their L10 coming off a win by 10 points or more. The 49ers are 1-6 ATS in their L7 as divisional hosts.
(229) BALTIMORE at (230) SAN DIEGO (-3)
Don’t be fooled by Baltimore’s tight contest throughout with Kansas City, nor the fact that the Chiefs produced 24 points, the game wasn’t nearly that competitive. The Ravens outgained KC 501-188. They’ll need to be just as dominant this week to have a shot at beating San Diego, who will be playing its home opener. HC John Harbaugh’s team was 8-3 ATS on the road in ‘08 but could be looking to offset a crazy trend that finds them 0-7 SU & ATS in away games where the total is 38.5-42. They are also just 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in their L8 road openers. The Chargers are just 2-4 SU & ATS in their L6 home season kickoffs, but 13-5 ATS as hosts overall in the L2 seasons. Speaking of home teams, hosts have dominated this h2h series, going 5-1 SU & ATS in L6.
(231) PITTSBURGH (-3) at (232) CHICAGO
Pittsburgh was battered and bruised in its season opener vs. Tennessee but managed to prevail in OT, 13-10. However, the Steelers face the prospects of moving on without defensive stud S Troy Polamalu (MCL sprain) as they head to Chicago. They are just 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in road openers over the L8 seasons and on an extended 3-year slid of going just 10-15 ATS on the road. Pittsburgh allowed 320 yards of offense to the Titans in the opener, more than they did in all but two games in ’08, so there are already reasons for concern. The Bear, also without a key defender in LB Brian Urlacher, hope to bounce back from their defeat at Green Bay, and slow a trend that has seen them go just 2-5 ATS in their L7 home openers. Underdogs are 3-1 ATS in this series, so Chicago (+3) could have an edge in that regard.
(227) CLEVELAND at (228) DENVER
From the StatFox Platinum Sheet…There are several angles in that article that suggest that Denver’s win this past Sunday could catapult it to consecutive victories. It certainly isn’t an outlandish boast, since Cleveland might be one of the 2-3 worst teams in the NFL this season. Now, rest assured, I am not jumping on the Denver bandwagon here, as the Broncos’ win in Cincinnati was by no means impressive. However, wins tend to built confidence, and momentum is a HUGE factor in NFL football. One stat I do like about the Broncos’ performance in Week 1 however was the fact that they gained 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Now, granted, a lot of it came on that last miraculous play, but another week of practice with the full allotment of weapons will be critical for HC McDaniels’ club. Denver wins by double-digits here. Play: Denver -3
NFL: Atlanta at Arizona (4:30 PM ET, NBC)
2008-12-31
Atlanta & Arizona kickoff wildcard weekend with a 4:30 PM ET start on Saturday. The 9-7 Cardinals are the host & #4 seed, despite being 2-games worse in won-lost record than the Falcons. Ken Whisenhunt’s team spent the second half on cruise control after wrapping up the division early. However, they did win the season finale vs. Seattle to advance their home record to 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS, the second straight season with that mark. Despite scoring 30.2 PPG at home, they play as the 2-1/2 point opening line home dog to a Falcons team that rebounded from 4-12 in ’07 to a 7-win improvement. They split eight road games in ’08, but scored 10.4 PPG less than at home. Over the L3 seasons, Atlanta is just 2-11 ATS vs. good offenses gaining more than 5.65 yards per play.
The quarterback matchup in Arizona this Saturday features a Super Bowl MVP and two-time NFL MVP with seven playoff starts under his belt (Kurt Warner) and a rookie (Matt Ryan) learning the ropes on the fly. On paper, the outcome appears to be a no-brainer considering the weapons Warner works with, as Larry Fitzgerald (96 catches, 1,431 yards, 12 touchdowns), Anquan Boldin (89, 1,038, 11) and Steve Breaston (77, 1,006, 3) form perhaps the best wide receiver trio in the NFL.
The Falcons, rebounding from a 4-12 campaign, nearly won the NFC South and hit the playoffs riding their first three-game winning streak of the season. Michael Turner, the best free-agent signing of last offseason, has run for 1,699 yards and 17 touchdowns, while Jerious Norwood (805 total yards, six touchdowns) has been one of the better backups around. His 92-yard kick return set up his own eight8-yard touchdown run, and he later added a 45-yard scamper to ice last week’s 31-27 win over St. Louis. A 34-21 home win over Seattle may have restored some confidence to an Arizona team that’s lost four of its last seven games, including three by at least 21 points, but home teams aren’t guaranteed wins in the wild-card round. Over the last four seasons, hosts are 8-8.
Playoff teams built for the long haul generally revolve around a strong running game, and stopping the run, but that’s exactly where the Cardinals come up short. Edgerrin James was benched in Week 9, and his replacement, rookie Tim Hightower, was largely ignored. In seven starts, he topped 13 carries or 35 yards just once and may be passed over by James again after the veteran’s 100 yards on 14 carries in Week 17.
Ignoring the running game may have paid off against the deadbeats of the NFC West, against whom the Cardinals averaged 30 points per game, but teams with playoff aspirations, namely the Giants, Eagles, Vikings and Patriots, saw through that approach. They pounded out an average of 173.5 rushing yards per game and wrestled control of the game away early.
PREDICTION: This year’s Wildcard games will certainly put to the test the record of 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS by home underdogs in this round since ’95. As far as I’m concerned, I think the more likely home dogs to win are on Saturday, as the better defensive road teams play on Sunday. In this game, two great offenses square off. However, strangely, the Cardinals are actually the team with the better defense. In fact, they have better yards per play stats on both sides of the ball. The Falcons’ 5.8 YPP allowed is nowhere near playoff-caliber and the fact that they score over 10 PPG less on the road than they do at home also has to be concerning. At the same time, Arizona has become a solid club at home under Ken Whisenhunt. I look for last week’s big win to give the hosts the momentum needed to pull the upset. Play on: Arizona +2.5
NFL: Winning Big Money on NFL Draft
2008-04-25
All right, maybe not BIG money, but at least the title got your attention to read on and who knows, maybe you can cash in. Of course, Sportsbook.com will be your home on Saturday for all the action, including props like how many QB’s will be selected in the first round. Right now the key number is Over/Under 1.5.
Imagine talking to your friends on Monday and telling them you picked up a few hundred dollars or even more betting on the NFL Draft! My assignment was to study all the aspects of where players are going. In order to make you money with my selections, I’ve channeled the spirits of Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and other draft gurus to assure I can be correct.
One difference everyone will see in this year’s 2008 draft is the pace. In the first round, teams will have 10 minutes to make their selections instead of 15. The second-round window will be seven minutes. Rounds 3 through 7 will be five minutes. That will mean all the talking heads will have to get up to speed, with less boring time.
I’ll rate my prop selections from Sportsbook.com on a 1-5 basis, with five being the best plays.
Number of Quarterbacks taken in Round One (Over/Under 1.5)
What a toughie to start with. Matt Ryan will of course be picked and based on history it would make sense Brian Brohm would be taken. However, in surveying the landscape of immediate needs, not sure who really needs a signal caller and seeing the amount of money that would be required to sign one and have him sit, not sure any NFL team will do that. That said somebody is sure to pull boneheaded move and draft a player they don’t really need. Still with this year’s crop of QB’s filled with uncertainty, bet the Under on this prop. Rating -2
Number of Running Backs taken in Round One (Over/Under 4)
Heavy action on the Under, now up to -350 in this spot. The only true every down back is Darren McFadden, whose skill set includes taking the ball out of the shotgun formation. Next is Rashard Mendenhall, who though doesn’t possess the straight line speed of DM, has more then enough gitty-up and can run inside or outside, just ask USC. Jonathan Stewart is the last sure-fire first round selection. He is the perfect complimentary back to a team that has shifty starter. What makes this an Over wager is Felix Jones is available. Dallas in no longer enamored with Julius Jones and will want somebody new to tag with Marion Barber. Owner Jerry Jones is Arkansas grad, loves to play GM on draft day and Jones went to what college, that’s right Arkansas. Play Over to cash +270 ticket. Rating -4
Number of Wide Receivers taken in Round One (Over/Under 3)
Based purely on talent, its hard to make a case more than one wide receiver will be taken in the top 11, since Buffalo looks to be hooked on Devin Thomas. Malcolm Kelly and James Hardy have first round ability and likely will be taken, but sure things, hardly. Going to pass here, because other then these three, nobody else is worthy, and need does not seem to be an issue.
Number of Offensive Linemen taken in Round One (Over/Under 6)
With Jake Long already heading to Miami, six more are needed to go Over. Like the Dolphins, Chicago, Atlanta and Kansas City appear to have pressing needs, taking the total to four. Talent wise, a number of outstanding linemen are available. As is the case most years, you’ll see a run at a certain position as GM’s sometimes panic if the guy they pegged gets picked. Thus they’ll go with the logic of protecting the quarterback and making the running game click and sense there is enough depth at this position, seven offensive linemen is a real possibility. Play Over 6. Rating -3
Number of Defensive Backs (CB/S) taken in Round One (Over/Under 5.5)
This prop wager all hinges on what Baltimore does. If Matt Ryan falls to eight, expect the Ravens to draft him. That would mean five would be the correct number for this bet, making Under the play. If Atlanta takes Ryan, Baltimore could take Leodis McKelvin or Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie. Kenny Phillips from Miami will be taken, as will Mike Jenkins. Corner Aqib Talib might be the best in the entire draft, however character issues make him late first rounder, possibly in Green Bay. Antoine Cason will be the sixth DB chosen, sending this number Over, if Ryan is gone by number eight slot. I’m betting he is thus wagering the -115. Rating -3
Chris Long - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 3.5)
Be serious. The Rams are taking Howie’s kid as the number two pick. Granted, -200 is a little rich, but think of it as betting the Patriots against the Jets on the money line. If by some crazy chance, St. Louis goes with Glen Dorsey, look for Atlanta to trade down and team that covets Long take him third. Rating-5
Darren McFadden - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 5.5)
Al Davis has always been enamored with speed, thus expect him to take McFadden at four and try to move one of the dozen other running backs under contract during the draft. Play Under. Rating-3
Matt Ryan - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 7.5)
Play Over, as Atlanta gets cold feet. Rating -3
Glenn Dorsey - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 2.5)
Betting Chris Long to St. Louis, making this Over play. Rating -3
Sedrick Ellis - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 8.5)
Indications are Cincinnati at nine, believe the USC DT will be available and take him here. Play Over. Rating – 4
Vernon Gholston - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 6.5)
If Kansas City doesn’t take him at five to replace Jared Allen, the Jets almost assuredly will next at six. Play Under- Rating -4
Rashard Mendenhall - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 15.5)
It seems to be no coincidence that the number chose for this prop and the Detroit Lions draft position is identical (15 that is). Play Under with the Lions needing a first rate running back to go with new offensive philosophy. Rating -4
Jonathan Stewart - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 20.5)
Tricky call here on the former Oregon Duck. He’s had his share of injuries, making durability concerns real. He’s a big back, who can cut on a dime, making him prone to ankle injuries over the short and long term. The Eagles (19th) or Seahawks (25th) are the logical teams for Stewart to be chosen by. My guess is Philadelphia does defensive backfield and Seattle scoops him up. Play Over. Rating -1
DeSean Jackson - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be (Over/Under 27.5)
What team has aging quarterback, a lead receiver in his mid-30’s and no other consistent outside threat? If you guessed Tampa Bay, you are correct. The Bucs draft 20th, meaning DeSean Jackson will be wearing pewter, red and white in the fall. Under. Rating -5
Draft Matchups: Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st?
* Darren McFadden -140 vs Matt Ryan +110
Challenging wager, picking McFadden as Atlanta doesn’t pull the trigger on Ryan. Rating -3
* Chris Long +140 vs Glenn Dorsey -180
Everything I’m reading suggests Long to St. Louis as second selection. Rating -5
* Briam Brohm -260 vs Chad Henne +200
If Atlanta passes on Ryan, this is where they pick up Brian Brohm to fill quarterback needs. Rating -3
* Joe Flacco +105 vs Chad Henne -135
Even with all the good things heard about Flacco, that was February, this April, does any organization take a flyer on a quarterback or look around the NFL, with the number of Wolverines QB’s that have cashed paychecks the last 15 years. Pick Henne. Rating -2
* Jonathan Stewart -180 vs Felix Jones +140
Even though Jones appears headed to Dallas at 28th slot, rumors are starting to percolate, Arizona might jump in and take Jones. I’d still lean with Stewart; however hearing enough talk this could be real. Rating -1
Total SEC Players Drafted in the 1st Round (Over/Under 6.5)
An uncertain wager on Under, with Marcus Harrison of Arkansas the one player that could tip the scale the wrong way. Rating-1
Total ACC Players Drafted in the 1st Round (Over/Under 6.5)
After careful study, don’t find the seventh player, mark this play as an Under. Rating-3
Total Big 10 Players Drafted in the 1st Round (Over/Under 4.5)
Four players are set, with Indiana’s James Hardy the variable selection. His inability to play hard all the time has the Under as the play. Rating-2
Total PAC 10 Players Drafted in the 1st Round (Over/Under 4.5)
With such at deep draft at the cornerback position, Antoine Cason is fifth Pac-10 player picked in opening round. Rating -3
Many different sportsbooks are offering wagers on certain players picked in the first round, thought I’d share my absolutely favorite one…
Former Penn State LB Dan Conner to be taken in first round?
This is legalized thievery at +150 for the answer to be NO. Rating-5
Disclaimer- There is no way to know what teams might make trades that would significantly alter how the draft plays out. Take this into consideration.
NFL - Green Bay at Detroit (12:30 PM – FOX)
2007-11-22
Green Bay can take a huge step towards clinching the NFC North already with a win Thursday in Detroit. This Thanksgiving affair is the first of two huge back-to-back Thursday games for the Packers.
Incidentally, Green Bay is just 2-6 ATS in their L8 Thursday games. For Detroit, the holiday has not been festive in recent years as it has been blown out on three straight Thanksgivings, by an average of 23 PPG. In fact, the Lions last win in this spot was ‘03 vs. the Pack, 22-14, as a 7-point dog. Green Bay is a 3.5-point favorite, the first time it will play as road chalk under Mike McCarthy. His team is 4-0 SU & ATS away in ’07 and 9-3 SU & ATS in his tenure. Detroit has lost back-to-back games to fall to 6-4, but owns a 12-4 ATS mark hosting its division rival.
Interestingly, this is the battle for NFC North supremacy and neither team is from Chicago. Few could have anticipated such a matchup would be so entertaining and vital at the beginning of the season, but now a conference title and playoff dreams hang in the balance.
Green Bay has enjoyed the fruits of an outstanding young offensive line and their rushing attack may be joining suit despite troublesome injuries. The vigor and emotion of QB Brett Favre is keeping the youth around him focused, bringing it all together as one of the top threats in the NFC.
Detroit, led by a veteran QB of their own (Jon Kitna), has started to earn offensive balance of their own with the return of RB Kevin Jones. However, the onslaught of two of the best sack men in the game (Aaron Kampman, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila) will make things as difficult as ever for the Lions.
The Packers can win on defense. Detroit wins despite theirs.
Keys to the Game - In the NFL, change is fast and furious and this game typifies just that. If Green Bay is really developing a semblance of a running game, this becomes an even more dangerous team. The matchup will be the Detroit offensive effort against the Packers’ solid defense. The Lions have played at a much more frenetic pace at Ford Field, scoring 30 points a game. Detroit receivers are equally as physical as the Pack’s cornerbacks which means the officials will play a part. The home team is 14-4 ATS in what is a must win game for the Lions.
Trends
Green Bay is 2-6 ATS when playing on a Thursday.
Detroit is 12-4 ATS hosting the Packers.
StatFox Pick – Lions + points